University of Heidelberg, Applied Analysis Seminar
Thu 09.12.2021
14:15, posted in Applied Analysis
Dr. Jan Fuhrmann (Heidelberg University)
Modeling and explaining the COVID-19 epidemic in Germany
Online via ZOOM

After a short introduction providing some facts and figures about the COVID-19 pandemic we will present a few compartment models for the spread of respiratory infectious diseases that can be applied to COVID-19. For a particularly simple model we will present some parameter estimation results and make a remark on difficulties arising from incomplete data. Moreover, we shall explain some features of the waves observed in Germany (and elsewhere) in terms of intrinsic behavior of the models. Finally, we present a collaborative effort to compare short term forecasts generated from a wide variety of models and to improve the quality of predictions by aggregating different types of models.

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